Where Angles Fear to Tread

June 23, 2016

The evening before the morning after

Filed under: Politics, UK Politics — Right Angle @ 9:22 pm

So the polls have closed, the world has not ended (yet) and the earth is still orbiting the sun (phew). Of course, this could all end in 10 hours when the result is announced so we now eagerly await for the results from Sunderland. So what could happen in the results:

Large Remain Victory in all countries

All four countries vote overwhelmingly to Remain in the EU (55% or over of the vote). Amandate of this level would ensure questions should be reduced and the Conservative party (and the British public) are unlikely to get a further question for another 30-40 years.

Small Remain Victory in England, Remain Victory in UK

Most of the forecasts are expecting a high Remain vote in Scotland, and Northern Ireland and a solid win for the Remain campaign in Wales. If there is a very close vote (within 4 points – so 52% or less) then the mandate will not be as strong and this is unlikely to be sufficient for supporters of the Leave campaign. There is likely to be lots of ‘we told you…’ if in the future errors are made within the EU (which even it’s ardent supporter would expect at some point).

Victory for Leave in England, Victory for Remain in Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales

It is mathematically possible (especially with the large Remain vote expected in Scotland) that the UK will vote to Remain, but that England will vote to Leave. If this happens then we could be heading quickly and irrevocably to a consitutional and Union crisis which will make the West Lothian question look like a family argument at a BBQ. I don’t know what will happen in this case, but I would anticipate it being the worse of any of the results!

Small Leave Victory overall

Within 4 points (52% or below) but with Scotland and NI voting to stay. I would expect a small concession by the EU and a further vote within the 2 years allowed to leave the EU

Leave Victory overall

55% Leave victory (which has always seemed very unlikely). We leave the EU, Scotland vote again to Leave the UK, vote to do so and try to rejoin the EU…

-Right Angle

 

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