Where Angles Fear to Tread

November 9, 2016

The left need to stop ignoring the poor

Filed under: Politics, UK Politics, US Politics — Right Angle @ 8:25 pm

Trump is US President-Elect, Britain is leaving the EU and politicians from the right are making ground in many countries within continental Europe. What is happening, and are all these events linked or relating to country-specific issues? Of course it’s a mixture of both, and never a simple answer.

However, in two recent elections the accepted wisdom that the poor will vote the way of the left has been disproved. In Britain the largest votes to leave the EU were from the previous industrial areas of the North where labour dominates, and in USA Ohio and Pennsylvania have voted for Trump despite all polls suggesting they would go Democrat again.

The left – including liberal media, commentators, and celebrities – assumed that the poor – many of whom previously worked in heavy industry and manufacturing – would continue to vote for them whatever they do or say. Vague – and sometimes not so vague – accustations of racism and not adapting to the new global world we now live appear to have built up resentment against this assumption. The America ‘Rust Belt’ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rust_Belt is a good example of the point I am trying to make.

Manufacturing (especially first tier level such as steel manufacture) has been steadily transferred to countries outside the ‘developed’ world. This has been replaced with higher paid service jobs and the ability to focus skills in a country and become specialists. However, that is economic theory – in practice it might work for society as a whole, but it doesn’t work for individuals. If a person has worked in manufacturing for 15 years, and their parents worked there before them, and the plant closes and moves to China then it may make more jobs in New York in banking or trading but that is little help to this person. Left in a town with the primary industry gone, and no alternative employment available this person is left with two choices – stay and struggle, or leave and look for new employment. However, they must leave their houses behind – as no-one will buy them in a shrinking town – and start again, through no fault of their own. So anyone who does escape this trap must start again, and give money to the rich landlords of the populous and successful cities as they will never afford to buy property there.

What I am trying to convey is that this impact of globalisation has not been acknowledged by the left and is only starting to be recognised by those outside the left (and not the traditional parties of the right – the Conservatives didn’t believe Brexit could win, and the Republicans didn’t believe Trump could). Any politician who does acknowledge this impact appears to be certain to increase their votes in these areas, potentially delivering unexpected results.

The real problem occurs if these people are still not listened to. I hope those in power in both UK and USA don’t ignore this requirement and work towards improving the lives of these people left behind by globalisation through no fault of their own.

Right Angle


And that’s the win

Filed under: Politics, US Politics — Tags: — Obtuse Angle @ 8:33 am

After an interminable wait for the ultra-cautious BBC to finally call Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and not until after he has taken to the stage to declare victory, the Beeb finally announce what we have all believed for hours now, Donald Trump is President-Elect of the United States of America.

Wisconsin puts Trump over the 270 finishing line

A bad day for the Dems all round, as the Republicans hold the House and the Senate

Trump wins

Filed under: Politics, US Politics — Tags: — Right Angle @ 8:14 am

I didn’t think I would be posting that at the beginning of the night, and definitely didn’t expect to be writing it up at 8am after a not-concession / concession from Clinton.

His acceptance speech was normal, before descending into a more rambling end – he needs a good press secretary immediately. He is now going through his crowd thanking his supporters and having photos taken to the tunes of ‘Can’t Always Get What You Want’ which seems a strange victory song.

His White House will also have a Republican Senate and a Republican House of Representatives so it is possible that he will have support to do what he wants and force through legislation. It is possible that the Republican House will try to frustrate him, but after the success of Trump it would be very risky from a personal career point of view as the Tea Party may make them targets in the next 2 years.

Right Angle

Trump very close now

Filed under: Politics, US Politics — Tags: — Right Angle @ 5:05 am

Trump now has 244 and needs 270 to win – so 26 votes needed.

He’ll win Alaska (3) and should win Arizona (11) so only needs 12 more. Michigan will give it on its own, but he has a lead in Wisconsin (10) and New Hampshire (4).

It’s still close, but very difficult to see how Hillary can get out of this.

Right Angle

First flip of the night

Filed under: Uncategorized — Obtuse Angle @ 3:54 am

Ohio flips red, opening up Trumps path to victory, and making things particularly tricky. With Florida looking like it will follow suit, and prediction sites, news orgs and the betting markets are now all expecting a Trump win.

First flip of the night

Trump has more VP cubes, is it enough to overcome HRC’s late high scorers?

Electoral Math(s)

Filed under: Politics, US Politics — Tags: — Right Angle @ 3:28 am

Ohio is called for Trump (won by Obama in 2012) it is the the first swing state to declare as a change. So we start to look at the electoral maths (or math for our cousins from the US).

Obama won by 126, so if Trump win 63 it will be a tie.

Ohio is 18, the Florida is 29 (Trump is a long way ahead here with 99% counted), this means he needs to find another 16 electoral college votes without losing any of Romney’s states. Where can he can get them from?

Obtuse Angle and I are considering Nevada, Minnesota and Wisconsin but still far too early to call any of these. It’s going to be a long nervous night.

Right Angle

Still nothing new to report

Filed under: Politics, US Politics — Tags: — Right Angle @ 2:20 am

Still nothing exceptional to report in terms of states declaring for either candidate.

26 states (including DC and the 4 Nebraskas) and no changes from the Obama / Romney election. Texas is the biggest win for Trump at the moment which at one point in the campaign seemed to be at risk.

Meanwhile the Republicans continue to hold onto their seats in the senate (bar the single loss) and ABC/BBC have declared the House of Representatives for the Republicans. That’ll continue to cause Clinton problems if she wins tonight.

However, eyes are now on North Carolina, Viriginia, Ohio and of course Florida.

Oh – and betfair are now showing 2:1 Clinton:Trump. That’s quite a bit closer than the beginning of the night (6:1)

Right Angle

All eyes turn to Florida, again

Filed under: Politics, US Politics — Tags: — Obtuse Angle @ 1:54 am

So no surprise, Florida looks tight, a Trump must win, and squeaky bum time for Team Clinton if they lose it. 

Everyone’s watching Florida’s 29 magic cubes

A flurry of results

Filed under: Uncategorized — Obtuse Angle @ 1:48 am

The first flurry of results are in, so far, not many surprises in the called results.

Now with added numbers

Early Morning

Filed under: Politics, US Politics — Tags: — Right Angle @ 1:19 am

Early Morning and nothing really new in the presidential election.

Clinton has New Jersey; Rhode Island; Delaware; Massechuettes; Maryland; Vermont; DC (all held by Obama)

Trump has Indiana, Mississippi; Kentucky; Oklahoma; W Virginia (all won by Romney)

So nothing new at the moment with the votes as 68-37 (C-T).

In the senate race the Republicans are forecast to lose Illinois as the Democrats (Tammy Duckworth) beat a sitting Republican (Mark Kirk) so the Senate could be back in play.

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