Where Angles Fear to Tread

June 9, 2017

Never write a blog at 5:30am

Filed under: Politics, UK Politics — Right Angle @ 4:37 am

Having not slept since 6:15am yesterday morning, done a full day’s work and driven 2 hours to Kent the best thing to do at 5:30am is to update a blog for future posterity… or maybe not.

It is now clear that the exit polls are right (or close enough) and that there will be a Hung Parliment with DUP propping up the Conservatives in the next parliament.

It is also clear that May has ****ed herself, the Conservative party and very likely Brexit. An apalling, negative campaign, too close to other elections and after saying she would not call an election appears to have been a catastrophic error. May should pay with her job following this, but I fear that it has fundamentally holed Brexit as well, with an EU fudge now becoming much more likely than before the election.

Two party politics is also back with LAB & CON going into Scotland, and the SNP being crippled. And May didn’t correctly factor in where the UKIP votes would go. Only winners here are Ruth Davidson and Jeremy Corbyn.

Right Angle

June 8, 2017

Disaster for MayCon

Filed under: Politics, UK Politics — Right Angle @ 11:06 pm

In 2015 CON = 331; LAB = 232, and the exit poll is suggesting that CON will drop and LAB will gain with a dramatic fall for SNP.

As an exit poll it is always difficult to know whether it is right, wrong, or badly wrong but if it is true, or CON don’t get at least 331 then this will be bad for May and could spell the end of her lead in the Conservative party. She may be able to survive if they achieve at least 331 (but would be unlikely to make it to 2022) but any lower than this and one would assume that she may not even make it to the start of Brexit negotiations in June.

Unfortunately, she only has herself to blame for this close run election. Don’t trust polls (a message from 2015 & 2016), and run a good and positive election. (Which she failed to do – see my pre-closure blog earlier). I’m still hoping for a CON majority to give us a slightly more stable government, as a minority government may see another election in October / November which I’m sure is not what anyone wants!

-Right Angle

Tardiness Leads the Count

Filed under: Politics, UK Politics — Right Angle @ 9:58 pm

Four minutes to 11pm and neither Sunderland or Newcastle have declared their results. This despite their use of lots of students and running in front of cameras with pictures of their cities.

I think this may just be a publicity issue, and not a serious political wish to get an early result out to those of us on twitter, facebook and blogs.

Hopefully they’ll get an answer to us shortly.

BBC/ITV Exit Poll

Filed under: Politics, UK Politics — Right Angle @ 9:03 pm

Exit poll saying CON losing 17 seats, LAB winning 34 seats, and SNP losing 22 seats, which seems a little off.

No doubt I will be proven wrong but we shall see as we get the results around 3am – 4am

-Right Angle

An Election of Bad Taste and Bad Memories

Filed under: Politics, UK Politics — Right Angle @ 8:17 pm

The campaigning is over (bar the facebook, YouTube, and Twitter adverts) and BBC has been showing rubbish the whole day, and there is less than one hour to vote… (If you haven’t yet, put down this blog, and vote!)

We already have one result in – the Scottish Episcopal church has voted to allow Gay marriage in their churches. Bravo!

Now we have to wait for 11pm – midnight to hear that Sunderland have voted for Labour, and then wait quite a bit longer for the final result.

The campaign itself has been poor with personal attacks the norm and not policies. Primarily from the Conservatives. Normally a party in government has a track record to fall back on, and the Conservatives have a good record (albeit one that can be a little difficult to understand). Despite insisting that the election was called to give May a mandate for Brexit, this has not been talked about much, and attacks on Corbyn and his team have become common place. Unfortunately, these have been personal attacks as well as attacks on policies (the former being unacceptable, the latter being perfectly fine). Meanwhile SNP are trying desperately not to talk about the 2nd ‘once in a generation’ independance referendum and Labour are failed to explain how they will pay for their election promises (taxing the ‘rich’ and borrowing seems like the key).

I have voted for Conservative again, although I don’t think that will suprise readers of this blog, and I am in South Northamptonshire (Andrea Leadsom) which is one of safest Conservative seats in the country.

A quick break and a nap, and then ready to listen to Sunderland.

(For those non-politics twitter followers, who’ve got this far, (how?!?) I suggest a tour through the highlights of Champions Trophy 2017 on the I-Player. There are 7 games or slightly over 6 hours of great cricket. Stay awake with us and pretend to be a politico!)

-Right Angle

November 9, 2016

The left need to stop ignoring the poor

Filed under: Politics, UK Politics, US Politics — Right Angle @ 8:25 pm

Trump is US President-Elect, Britain is leaving the EU and politicians from the right are making ground in many countries within continental Europe. What is happening, and are all these events linked or relating to country-specific issues? Of course it’s a mixture of both, and never a simple answer.

However, in two recent elections the accepted wisdom that the poor will vote the way of the left has been disproved. In Britain the largest votes to leave the EU were from the previous industrial areas of the North where labour dominates, and in USA Ohio and Pennsylvania have voted for Trump despite all polls suggesting they would go Democrat again.

The left – including liberal media, commentators, and celebrities – assumed that the poor – many of whom previously worked in heavy industry and manufacturing – would continue to vote for them whatever they do or say. Vague – and sometimes not so vague – accustations of racism and not adapting to the new global world we now live appear to have built up resentment against this assumption. The America ‘Rust Belt’ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rust_Belt is a good example of the point I am trying to make.

Manufacturing (especially first tier level such as steel manufacture) has been steadily transferred to countries outside the ‘developed’ world. This has been replaced with higher paid service jobs and the ability to focus skills in a country and become specialists. However, that is economic theory – in practice it might work for society as a whole, but it doesn’t work for individuals. If a person has worked in manufacturing for 15 years, and their parents worked there before them, and the plant closes and moves to China then it may make more jobs in New York in banking or trading but that is little help to this person. Left in a town with the primary industry gone, and no alternative employment available this person is left with two choices – stay and struggle, or leave and look for new employment. However, they must leave their houses behind – as no-one will buy them in a shrinking town – and start again, through no fault of their own. So anyone who does escape this trap must start again, and give money to the rich landlords of the populous and successful cities as they will never afford to buy property there.

What I am trying to convey is that this impact of globalisation has not been acknowledged by the left and is only starting to be recognised by those outside the left (and not the traditional parties of the right – the Conservatives didn’t believe Brexit could win, and the Republicans didn’t believe Trump could). Any politician who does acknowledge this impact appears to be certain to increase their votes in these areas, potentially delivering unexpected results.

The real problem occurs if these people are still not listened to. I hope those in power in both UK and USA don’t ignore this requirement and work towards improving the lives of these people left behind by globalisation through no fault of their own.

Right Angle

And that’s the win

Filed under: Politics, US Politics — Tags: — Obtuse Angle @ 8:33 am

After an interminable wait for the ultra-cautious BBC to finally call Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and not until after he has taken to the stage to declare victory, the Beeb finally announce what we have all believed for hours now, Donald Trump is President-Elect of the United States of America.

Wisconsin puts Trump over the 270 finishing line

A bad day for the Dems all round, as the Republicans hold the House and the Senate

Trump wins

Filed under: Politics, US Politics — Tags: — Right Angle @ 8:14 am

I didn’t think I would be posting that at the beginning of the night, and definitely didn’t expect to be writing it up at 8am after a not-concession / concession from Clinton.

His acceptance speech was normal, before descending into a more rambling end – he needs a good press secretary immediately. He is now going through his crowd thanking his supporters and having photos taken to the tunes of ‘Can’t Always Get What You Want’ which seems a strange victory song.

His White House will also have a Republican Senate and a Republican House of Representatives so it is possible that he will have support to do what he wants and force through legislation. It is possible that the Republican House will try to frustrate him, but after the success of Trump it would be very risky from a personal career point of view as the Tea Party may make them targets in the next 2 years.

Right Angle

Trump very close now

Filed under: Politics, US Politics — Tags: — Right Angle @ 5:05 am

Trump now has 244 and needs 270 to win – so 26 votes needed.

He’ll win Alaska (3) and should win Arizona (11) so only needs 12 more. Michigan will give it on its own, but he has a lead in Wisconsin (10) and New Hampshire (4).

It’s still close, but very difficult to see how Hillary can get out of this.

Right Angle

Electoral Math(s)

Filed under: Politics, US Politics — Tags: — Right Angle @ 3:28 am

Ohio is called for Trump (won by Obama in 2012) it is the the first swing state to declare as a change. So we start to look at the electoral maths (or math for our cousins from the US).

Obama won by 126, so if Trump win 63 it will be a tie.

Ohio is 18, the Florida is 29 (Trump is a long way ahead here with 99% counted), this means he needs to find another 16 electoral college votes without losing any of Romney’s states. Where can he can get them from?

Obtuse Angle and I are considering Nevada, Minnesota and Wisconsin but still far too early to call any of these. It’s going to be a long nervous night.

Right Angle

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