Where Angles Fear to Tread

November 9, 2016

Electoral Math(s)

Filed under: Politics, US Politics — Tags: — Right Angle @ 3:28 am

Ohio is called for Trump (won by Obama in 2012) it is the the first swing state to declare as a change. So we start to look at the electoral maths (or math for our cousins from the US).

Obama won by 126, so if Trump win 63 it will be a tie.

Ohio is 18, the Florida is 29 (Trump is a long way ahead here with 99% counted), this means he needs to find another 16 electoral college votes without losing any of Romney’s states. Where can he can get them from?

Obtuse Angle and I are considering Nevada, Minnesota and Wisconsin but still far too early to call any of these. It’s going to be a long nervous night.

Right Angle

Still nothing new to report

Filed under: Politics, US Politics — Tags: — Right Angle @ 2:20 am

Still nothing exceptional to report in terms of states declaring for either candidate.

26 states (including DC and the 4 Nebraskas) and no changes from the Obama / Romney election. Texas is the biggest win for Trump at the moment which at one point in the campaign seemed to be at risk.

Meanwhile the Republicans continue to hold onto their seats in the senate (bar the single loss) and ABC/BBC have declared the House of Representatives for the Republicans. That’ll continue to cause Clinton problems if she wins tonight.

However, eyes are now on North Carolina, Viriginia, Ohio and of course Florida.

Oh – and betfair are now showing 2:1 Clinton:Trump. That’s quite a bit closer than the beginning of the night (6:1)

Right Angle

All eyes turn to Florida, again

Filed under: Politics, US Politics — Tags: — Obtuse Angle @ 1:54 am

So no surprise, Florida looks tight, a Trump must win, and squeaky bum time for Team Clinton if they lose it. 

Everyone’s watching Florida’s 29 magic cubes

A flurry of results

Filed under: Uncategorized — Obtuse Angle @ 1:48 am

The first flurry of results are in, so far, not many surprises in the called results.

Now with added numbers

Early Morning

Filed under: Politics, US Politics — Tags: — Right Angle @ 1:19 am

Early Morning and nothing really new in the presidential election.

Clinton has New Jersey; Rhode Island; Delaware; Massechuettes; Maryland; Vermont; DC (all held by Obama)

Trump has Indiana, Mississippi; Kentucky; Oklahoma; W Virginia (all won by Romney)

So nothing new at the moment with the votes as 68-37 (C-T).

In the senate race the Republicans are forecast to lose Illinois as the Democrats (Tammy Duckworth) beat a sitting Republican (Mark Kirk) so the Senate could be back in play.

First states called

Filed under: Politics, US Politics — Tags: — Obtuse Angle @ 12:14 am

The first states have been called, and so far, no surprises. With this news, behold our resultsometer:

Trump takes a not unexpected early lead

November 8, 2016

Election Graphics Unplugged

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: — Obtuse Angle @ 11:52 pm

In a return to our usual service Right Angle is back with me here at The Origin, and we are, as is traditional, tracking the night’s excitement on the high-etc laser display boards. Stay tuned for more graphical wonders once the results start coming in.

Kickoff graphics good to go

Election Day

Filed under: Politics, US Politics — Tags: — Right Angle @ 9:36 pm

I’m in Kent with my fellow, rarely seen blogger, Obtuse Angle. We will be watching the election live on BBC, NYT, ABC (and all the available web type devices). Including quite possibly a lot of Twitter!

We are approaching polls closing and the very strange American approach of calling results before any counting has taken place in order to get the results by midnight US time. So we are awaiting the result of the first few states (although really Florida being key again). Obtuse Angle has his voting cubes ready and we are calculating the best ways to get 270 electoral votes, and wondering how to get Johnson to win, and would that really be any better.

For the record – and in a change to past elections – I am ‘for’ Hilary Clinton in this election, which really means I can’t believe that the Republicans were stupid enough to vote for Trump when almost anyone at all could have beaten Clinton.

I’ll leave it in peace for a bit, return to Twitter and post more later

Right Angle

November 7, 2016

The Electoral College

Filed under: Politics, US Politics — Right Angle @ 5:49 pm

It’s that time every 4 years when those of us who follow the US Presidential election need to remind ourselves how the Electoral college works. In case any of our readers don’t know it is simple – especially if you are used to the UK ‘first past the post’ electoral system.

Each state will hold the election with the candidates available in that state. It is possible to be on the ballot in only one or a few states, so some states have more than the two candidates. However it will be Clinton or Trump (baring a mathematical fluke of a tie) who will win overall. In order to fairly represent the voters in each state, they are given a number of votes in the electoral college based – roughly – on the number of voters in each state. (It’s the number of seats in House of Representatives + 2 (Seats in the Senate)).

So small states like North Dakota have 3 votes in the College but large states have more – California has 55.

Each state then counts up the votes from the Polling Stations and the winner in the state gets all the votes of that State. In order to win a candidate needs half the votes +1 – 270.

This means that some states always vote Republican or Democrat and have not been visited by either candidate. It also means that if you a voter in these states (like the safe seats in the UK) there is little point in voting except to say that you did and increase the ‘popular vote’ for your chosen candidate.

But states with very close forecast results get a lot of attention because if they won by either party they get a lot of votes. Another thing worth noting is that this system benefits the Democrats over the Republicans following immigration, and changes to the electorate meaning that there are lots of ways for Clinton to win. For example if Florida votes for Clinton it’s really all over for Trump, but if Trump wins it Clinton can still get to the White House. This is where we all get out our calculators – or spreadsheets – and work out the permutations for both candidates.

Right Angle

The night before

Filed under: Politics, US Politics — Right Angle @ 5:21 pm

Whilst the world goes to sleep with USA shortly behind, tomorrow the population of a super-power go to the polls. No one could have failed to notice the two candidates although there are a large number of legitimate concerns about both of them.

What would Trump do with the wall, banning of entire religions and withdraw from the world politic? And what would Clinton actually do? So far the major element of her campaign appears to be ‘we’re not Trump.’ Accurate, but hardly helpful to the electorate.

How did a country of 325M people have two so deeply unpopular candidates? And how has Clinton not definitely beaten Trump already given the large disparity in people and money supporting each candidate, and the obvious dislike a lot of people have for Trump? The simplistic answer is that Clinton is just as disliked as Trump, and the promises of the Obama election campaign on 2008 have not been kept. Especially the promises hinted at and never actually formally promised.

So as the polls open (and I am aware they have been open for weeks in some states) the rest of the world holds its breath whilst the last remaining super power makes a difficult / impossible decision. I shall be hoping Clinton wins if only because Trump would be much worse, but it would have been so much better had America managed to provide 2 candidates who could discuss policies and engage with the electorate.

 

Right Angle

 

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